If my logic is faulty, or if I'm missing some crucial point in the following argument, please let me know.
There are many professional orchestras in the world. I can't think of a major city that doesn't have one. In the US alone, there are so many national, state, and city level orchestras that counting them is a task that would frustrate me to the point of giving up in the first five minutes.
There are very few professional wind ensembles. I can actually only think of four in the world off the top of my head.
There are many universities that have a stronger wind ensemble program than orchestral program. I know that at my school in particular, you are far more likely to run into someone who plays a wind instrument than someone who plays a string instrument.
Most composers today write for wind ensemble rather than orchestra, because wind ensembles (being a comparatively new type of ensemble, and therefore having less repertoire to choose from) are more likely to play new music.
That said, why is it so absurd to think that there will be an increase in the number of professional wind ensembles in the near future?
I think it is only logical to assume that the limited number of job options available to people who perform on wind instruments will lead to some of these people forming ensembles of their own, and that some of those ensembles will eventually become professional ensembles.
Am I completely crazy?